14 Aug · 20:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1612
FormWLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Oracz
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1694
FormWWLLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H28-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-26)