14 Aug · 20:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1605
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kocik
TK
🇵🇱Tomasz Kocik
ELO 1624
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Kocik covers set handicap as favourite 67% (18)
Fair odds · Kocik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.