14 Aug · 19:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Robert Szymik
ELO 1482
FormLLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Szymik
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1414
FormLWWLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Szymik
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 70% · 1.44· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H43-29
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-29)