14 Aug · 19:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1612
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pawlik
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jedrzejowski
ELO 1585
FormLLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H7-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.