14 Aug · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1308
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1309
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Golaszewski🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 34% · 2.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H19-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.