14 Aug · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1623
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pawlik
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1605
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
🌟Krutak covers set handicap as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H7-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.