14 Aug · 22:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1328
FormWLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Fira
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1409
FormWLLWW
41%
59%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Fira
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+81
H2H10-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-8)