14 Aug · 23:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1308
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
WG
🇵🇱Wojciech Gluszek
ELO 1279
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H30-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.