14 Aug · 23:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Robert Szymik
ELO 1480
FormLWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Szymik
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1412
FormLWWWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Szymik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H12-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-7)