14 Aug · 23:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1409
FormWLLWW
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Fira
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalski
ELO 1250
FormLLLWL
67%
33%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~76 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+159
H2H47-36
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+159)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (47-36)