15 Aug · 01:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1295
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Piecowski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1311
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Piecowski goes over total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.44· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.