15 Aug · 03:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1311
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Piecowski
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1292
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fabis🌟Piecowski goes over total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.