15 Aug · 06:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1373
FormLWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Wrobel
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1319
FormWWLWW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Piecowski🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Wrobel
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 43% · 2.30· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H9-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)