15 Aug · 05:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1373
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wrobel
TP
🇵🇱Tomasz Pisarczyk
ELO 1344
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Wrobel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (19)
Fair odds · Wrobel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.77· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.