15 Aug · 05:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1319
FormLWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Wiza
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1369
FormLWWLL
45%
55%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Wiza
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H20-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-15)