15 Aug · 05:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Robert Szymik
ELO 1484
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Szymik
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1437
FormWWLWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Szymik
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H12-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-8)