15 Aug · 04:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1580
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kocik
TK
🇵🇱Tomasz Kocik
ELO 1616
FormWLLWW
46%
54%
🌟Kocik covers set handicap as favourite 67% (18)
Fair odds · Kocik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.