15 Aug · 11:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1471
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Paszkiewicz
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1460
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~72 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.