15 Aug · 09:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1307
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pisarczyk
TP
🇵🇱Tomasz Pisarczyk
ELO 1348
FormWWLLL
46%
54%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Pisarczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.