15 Aug · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1486
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1507
FormLWLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Urban🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H56-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.