15 Aug · 08:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1410
FormLLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Linek
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1362
FormWLWLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Linek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)