15 Aug · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1460
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krupa
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1465
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.