15 Aug · 08:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1507
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Schaniel
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1491
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus🌟Adamus goes over total as underdog 65% (57)
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H5-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.