15 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1486
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Urban
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1465
FormWLWLW
52%
48%
🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.