15 Aug · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1362
FormWLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Dabrowski
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1442
FormWLWLL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 68% · 1.47· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+80
H2H11-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-5)