15 Aug · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1349
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Poloszczanski
FJ
🇵🇱Filip Jablonski
ELO 1299
FormLWLWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Poloszczanski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H12-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-10)