15 Aug · 14:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BK
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1383
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Michalczyk
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1419
FormWLLLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Michalczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.