15 Aug · 14:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1292
FormLLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Poloszczanski
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1355
FormWWLLL
43%
57%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Poloszczanski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)