15 Aug · 15:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1419
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Michalczyk
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1407
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Michalczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.