15 Aug · 18:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇵🇱Kamil Kostyk
ELO 1493
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Wos
AW
🇵🇱Alan Wos
ELO 1543
FormLWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Wos
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H5-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-3)