15 Aug · 15:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1444
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Linek
BK
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1378
FormLWLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Linek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H10-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-5)