15 Aug · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1529
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Witczak
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1500
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Witczak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H38-49
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.