15 Aug · 16:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1347
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pisarczyk
TP
🇵🇱Tomasz Pisarczyk
ELO 1359
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Pisarczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H11-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.