15 Aug · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1518
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Oracz
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1542
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H20-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.