15 Aug · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1442
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Michalczyk
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1425
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Michalczyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.