15 Aug · 19:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JD
🇵🇱Jerzy Debski
ELO 1341
FormLWLWW
81%Win chancemodel fair 1.23Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1666
FormLWWWW
19%
81%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 66% (56)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 81% · 1.23vsMarket 79% · 1.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 69%Total ~74 pts
0-3
40%
1-3
28%
2-3
12%
3-2
9%
3-1
7%
Elo Gap+325
H2H6-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+325)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-0)