15 Aug · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1364
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Myszewski
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1331
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Myszewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H4-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.