15 Aug · 20:25 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1555
FormWWWLL
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1666
FormLWWWW
38%
62%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 66% (56)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~77 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
23%
2-3
15%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+111
H2H50-40
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+111)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (50-40)