15 Aug · 20:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1447
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Michalczyk
KR
🇵🇱Kamil Rudomina
ELO 1443
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Michalczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H2-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.