15 Aug · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇵🇱Artur Kubiak
ELO 1515
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1551
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H14-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.