15 Aug · 22:05 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1329
FormLWLLL
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Misiak
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1424
FormWLLLW
40%
60%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 45%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
22%
3-1
16%
2-3
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+95
H2H102-39
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+95)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (102-39)