15 Aug · 23:30 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1426
FormWLWLL
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Misiak
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1321
FormLLWLL
61%
39%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 69% · 1.44· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~78 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
22%
1-3
15%
3-2
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+105
H2H103-39
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+105)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (103-39)