15 Aug · 23:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1604
FormLWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1659
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 66% (56)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H10-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-7)