16 Aug · 03:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1531
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kubiak
AK
🇵🇱Artur Kubiak
ELO 1536
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
🌟Kubiak stays under total as favourite 64% (64)
Fair odds · Kubiak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H25-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.