16 Aug · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1457
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sokolowski
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1430
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ruszkiewicz
Fair odds · Sokolowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.