16 Aug · 05:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marek Kowol
ELO 1377
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Piotrowski
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1396
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.