16 Aug · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1358
FormWLWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1424
FormLWWWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~81 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H9-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)