16 Aug · 07:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1459
FormLLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kurek
PS
🇵🇱Pawel Slosarczyk
ELO 1383
FormLWLLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+76
H2H11-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-9)