16 Aug · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1437
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kurek
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1459
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.