16 Aug · 08:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1358
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kowol
MK
🇵🇱Marek Kowol
ELO 1371
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kowol
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.